As 2025 ends, the multifamily market finds itself in a period of recalibration rather than retrenchment. Headline narratives around interest rates, inflation and capital markets set the backdrop, but the defining forces of the year were far more practical: underwriting discipline, operational execution and market-specific fundamentals. For CF Capital, 2025 reinforced core investment principles while clarifying where opportunity continues to emerge.
Lessons From a More Selective Market
One of the clearest lessons of 2025 was that capital remains available, but only for strategies grounded in fundamentals. Lenders and institutional partners showed a strong preference for experienced sponsors, conservative leverage and business plans supported by in-place cash flow. In CF Capital’s Midwest and Southeast focus markets, assets with durable demand drivers continued to attract interest, even as credit conditions remained selective.
This environment underscored the importance of structure. Conservative assumptions, stress-tested underwriting and careful alignment between capital and business plans helped preserve flexibility throughout the year. In a market defined by uncertainty, optionality proved more valuable than aggressive leverage or speculative growth assumptions.
Wins Worth Noting
Despite a challenging backdrop, 2025 was a year of meaningful progress. Operational discipline translated into steady performance across the portfolio, particularly where NOI-focused initiatives took priority over headline rent growth. Leasing execution, tenant retention and expense management played a larger role in outcomes than broad market trends.
CF Capital also expanded its industry engagement and thought leadership, participating in many conferences and discussions focused on capital markets, underwriting and multifamily fundamentals. Equally important, communication with investors remained a priority. Clear reporting, timely market insights and transparency around strategy helped reinforce alignment throughout the year.
These wins reflect a broader emphasis on disciplined execution. In this cycle, value creation has been less about timing and more about doing the basics well, consistently and deliberately.
Market Signals That Shaped Strategy
Several trends stood out as 2025 unfolded. Capital flows varied sharply by asset quality and sponsor discipline, reinforcing the premium placed on well-structured deals. Operational fundamentals often diverged from national headlines, with local supply, demand and affordability dynamics driving performance market by market.
Debt strategy also emerged as a differentiator. As rates adjusted and volatility persisted, prioritizing fixed or hedged debt and maintaining flexibility within capital stacks helped stabilize returns. In many cases, thoughtful capital structuring proved just as important as asset selection.
Positioning for 2026
Looking ahead, CF Capital remains focused on clarity, discipline and execution. We believe 2026 will continue to reward investors and operators who align capital carefully with business plans, stay anchored in proven fundamentals and remain responsive to real-time performance data.
That means refining underwriting assumptions, stress-testing across a range of rate scenarios and maintaining a disciplined approach to acquisitions. It also means continuing to emphasize markets where population trends, employment bases and affordability support long-term demand for quality multifamily housing.
Final Thoughts
We appreciate the trust of our investors and partners and look forward to applying these lessons in the year ahead. If you’re evaluating opportunities for 2026 or want to discuss how these market dynamics may shape investment strategy, we welcome the conversation. As always, CF Capital remains focused on disciplined execution, thoughtful partnership and long-term value creation.
Congratulations to Tyler Chesser, CCIM, Co-Founder & Managing Partner of CF Capital, on being named a ConnectMoney NextGen Alternative Investment Award recipient.
Tyler’s leadership and forward-looking investment perspective continue to shape CF Capital’s approach to navigating complex markets and delivering long-term value. Well deserved.
As the year winds down, we’d like to take a breath and look ahead with curiosity. Not with strict forecasts, but with an open mind and a willingness to test some new ideas. That’s why we’re launching our first-ever 2026 Prediction Week. It’s a simple way to invite fresh thinking, compare notes across our network, and set the stage for a stronger start to the new year.
Before we share a few ideas, here is our favorite ‘stat’ of 2025:
Many of our investor conversations this year all circled back to one key question: “What will the next cycle look like?”
That question shows a clear shift. People are not waiting for certainty. They are actively searching for it and want to understand the next phase rather than react to it after it is underway.
CF Capital’s early view on 2026
These are not hard calls. They are signals we are watching as we build our plans for the coming year.
1. Capital efficiency becomes the new advantage.
Teams that manage capital with precision create meaningful separation from those who rely on older playbooks. Strong data, thoughtful structure, and quicker decision loops will matter even more as we move into 2026.
2. Real value outperforms noise.
The market continues to reward operators and investors who stay close to fundamentals. Clear cash flow stories and proven operational discipline rise above short-term swings and crowded narratives.
3. Partnerships drive momentum.
This year showed how much faster high-quality deals move when trusted partners are aligned. In 2026, we expect collaboration to remain a major accelerant, especially in complex or time sensitive opportunities.
Your turn
Prediction Week works best when more voices are in the mix.
-What trends are you watching as we head into 2026?
-Where do you see opportunity forming?
-What quote, stat, or insight shaped your thinking this year?
Share a thought with us on CF’s LinkedIn page (here). We will highlight a few responses and revisit them in early January.
Let’s close out the year with curiosity, focus, and a clear sense of direction.
Hello Friends and Investors,
As we close out 2025 and enter the Christmas season, we find ourselves deeply grateful—both for the trust you continue to place in us and for the opportunities this year has brought to demonstrate what disciplined, long-term stewardship really means.
This has been a year defined by resilience, patience, and strategic progress, culminating in another meaningful win as we closed the Embassy refinance last week. With three important capital events successfully navigated this year, our highest priority initiative—protecting investor capital first—has remained a clear and consistent success.
And looking ahead, we’re optimistic. Not because the market is suddenly “easy” (it’s not), but because we’re positioned for what comes next.
Making Sense of a Bifurcated, Paradoxical Market
If you’ve been watching the market closely, you’ve likely noticed what we’ve noticed: this is one of the more complex real estate moments in recent memory.
A few truths are simultaneously at play:
Major Update: Embassy Refinance Successfully Completed
Last week, we closed the refinance on Embassy Apartments—a major milestone that reflects months of persistent work, strategic leadership, and commitment to investor stewardship.
The Strategic Win
With the refinance, we're further protecting investor capital and extending the runway for continued value creation. This refinance positions Embassy for additional value-add execution, operational optimization, and a future sale in a more favorable market environment.
The Challenge We Overcame
Our initial refinance lender unexpectedly dropped out this summer (citing market conditions), forcing our team to take full control of the process, lean heavily on industry relationships, and execute a complex refinance under significant time constraints. The outcome was not just a “save,” but an accretive, long-term capital structure.
What CF Capital Continues to Deliver:
Resiliency. Execution under pressure. Capability in complex environments. This year proved what we’ve always said: When things get hard, we get better!
| Current Opportunity: Embassy Promissory NoteFor investors seeking high income-oriented yield, the Embassy Promissory Note remains open for investment. Key Terms - 12% annual yield, paid quarterly1% origination fee - 1% exit fee - 3-year term (expected full return of capital within ~2 years) - Minimum investment flexible Why Consider This Opportunity? - High-yield debt position backed by a strong, cash-flowing asset - Income-oriented structure in a low volatility debt position - Well-suited for accredited or sophisticated investors (self directed IRA funds eligible) and small family offices - Aligned with our broader long-term capital plan for the asset This is available on a first-come, first-served basis. |
| The Science of Scaling by Dr. Ben Hardy A powerful reminder that incrementalism equals stagnation. The path to meaningful growth—whether in business or investing—is paved with "impossible," transformational goals. As we head into our annual company offsite next week, this message resonates deeply: Impossible goals transform thinking and behavior that incremental goals never will. |
| “A culture of discipline is not a principle of business; it is a principle of greatness.” — Jim Collins |
2025 was a year of proving our principles: Protect capital. Execute with discipline. Build for the long term.
We’ve navigated complexity, overcome obstacles, acted with patience, and positioned ourselves for an exciting 2026 and beyond.
Thank you for your trust, your partnership, and your continued belief in our mission.
From our family to yours, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
We look forward to building a powerful year ahead—together.
In Partnership,
Tyler & Bryan
As we look to 2026, CF Capital is positioning for a year grounded in discipline, clear execution, and investor alignment. The market continues to shift, and we believe success will come less from chasing growth and more from controlling outcomes.
Markets over momentum.
We’re doubling down on core geographies in the Midwest and Southeast—markets where affordability and population trends continue to support demand. Our focus remains on proven locations where we can add real value.
Selectivity over scale.
We’re not chasing deal volume. We’re focused on high-conviction acquisitions that offer clear, controllable upside. Conservative underwriting and strong fundamentals will drive our decisions—not pressure to deploy.
Smart capital structure.
Debt and equity alignment matter more than ever. We're staying disciplined on leverage, using fixed or hedged debt, and building in multiple exit paths. That structure reduces risk and protects returns.
Leasing drives results.
Our leasing strategy is faster, more targeted, and tenant focused. We’re refining lease-up timelines, improving renewals, and capturing rent premiums based on detailed unit-level data.
NOI-focused management.
We prioritize net operating income over speculative rent growth. This means smart renovations, tight expense control, and operational discipline. Every dollar spent must return value.
Transparent reporting.
We’ve always prioritized clear communication with our partners. In 2026, we’re further refining our reporting systems with enhanced monthly dashboards, performance metrics, and real-time renovation tracking.
Looking Ahead
We’re preparing for refinance windows with proactive planning, stress-tested scenarios, and capital stack flexibility. Every deal we evaluate includes multiple exit strategies, giving us room to adapt as conditions shift.
Above all, we believe that portfolios built on execution—not speculation—will lead in this next cycle. At CF Capital, that’s exactly what we’re building.
Final Word
2026 won’t reward hype. It will reward clarity, discipline, and follow-through. We’re ready. If you share our commitment to fundamentals and transparency, we look forward to growing with you in the year ahead.
If this type of diligent investing resonates with you, we invite you to explore investing alongside our team — sign up for our exclusive investor list here to learn about upcoming opportunities.
– The CF Capital Team
Following the Fed’s first rate cut since December 2024, the CRE sector is watching closely for clues about how far and fast monetary policy might change.
Chair Powell emphasized that although inflation remains elevated, weakening labor-market signals and a moderation of growth justified taking policy off its tightening course. The Fed’s 25-basis-point cut lowered the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, marking an inflection point in policy after an extended period of monetary tightening.
But what does that mean for investors and operators heading into 2026? Is this a true shift—or simply a recalibration in progress?
A Shift Toward Easing—With Caveats
This rate cut confirms that the Fed is transitioning from restrictive policy toward a more neutral stance. It’s a significant development for CRE capital markets, but not yet a signal for widespread easing.
Following the Fed’s announcement, 10-year Treasury yields eased by approximately 30 basis points in the days that followed—a sign that markets are increasingly pricing in a policy peak. That movement offered some relief after yields briefly breached 5% in October, their highest level since 2007. Still, credit spreads remain wide and risk premiums elevated, suggesting continued caution.
In other words, fundamentals still rule. Success in this phase of the cycle will hinge on asset quality, market selection, and operational execution—not cap rate compression.
Lenders Still Selective, But Conditions Improving
Across the capital stack, there’s been a modest uptick in engagement—especially among relationship-driven lenders focused on stabilized or lightly transitional assets. Credit standards, however, remain tight.
Floating-rate financing remains elevated, though the forward curve is beginning to price in further cuts later in 2025. Fixed-rate debt has regained appeal, with recent Treasury movement offering clearer pricing benchmarks.
Importantly, lender sentiment is becoming more segmented. Well-capitalized sponsors with disciplined business plans are finding capital, while more speculative projects are still finding limited traction.
In CF Capital’s target markets—including the Midwest and Southeast—we’re seeing lenders selectively reengage around multifamily assets backed by strong in-place cash flow and durable demand drivers.
What’s Next: A Cautious Path to Reengagement
We’re seeing early signs of renewed activity—particularly from groups that remained patient during the pricing reset of 2023–2024. But broad-based momentum remains limited.
Most investors appear to share a view: the Fed is done hiking, but rate relief will be slow, and market pricing still has room to evolve. In the meantime, underwriting discipline, operational upside, and local market insight remain the keys to execution.
At CF Capital, we’re particularly focused on submarkets where population and employment trends remain strong and where we can drive NOI growth through hands-on asset management—not speculative rent assumptions.
Final Thoughts
The Fed’s November rate cut marks a policy transition—away from tightening, but not yet into accommodative territory. For investors and operators, it brings welcome clarity, though not a green light.
In our view, deal volume will continue to build—selectively. Assets that can support current financing structures and provide stable yield will lead activity. Pricing discovery will continue into early 2025, but the directional shift from the Fed allows for more informed underwriting.
At CF Capital, we’ll continue tracking policy shifts, credit market signals, and on-the-ground fundamentals in our target markets. As always, we believe disciplined underwriting and ground-up execution remain the best compass in a shifting environment.
| Hello Friends and Investors, At CF Capital, our mission as fiduciaries is clear: protect capital first, then scale it meaningfully. Real estate is a long-term asset class, and so is our mindset. This year, we have not acquired a new asset — not from inactivity, but from disciplined selectivity. The market remains out of alignment in many pockets, and we believe the patience we exercise today will translate into compelling opportunities tomorrow. Market Overview |
| Market Perspective Underwriting Discipline & Operational Excellence Matter More Than Ever The most successful investors in this part of the cycle are not the most aggressive — they are the most disciplined and operationally capable. In a market where debt costs, seller expectations, and capital flows are still normalizing, the path to outsized returns is forged through:Conservative and reality-tested underwritingOperational mastery, not financial engineeringPatient capital allocation, not speculation |
| Operational Performance — A Proof Point Our disciplined operating approach is delivering real results. Over the past two years since our management transition in 2023:T-3 NOI Annualized Growth: +51% T-12 NOI Growth: +31%Execution matters — and it compounds. These results underscore why we obsess over operations, resident experience, and expense discipline. In an environment where many operators are reacting, we are proactively strengthening asset performance and cash flow positions. Active Opportunity |
| Short-Term Opportunity - 12% Fixed ReturnThere are a limited spots available in a short-term investment opportunity: a 12% annual yield Promissory Note secured by Embassy Apartments, a 247-unit multifamily community in Evansville, IN. This short-term debt investment is structured to provide both attractive income and downside protection: Promissory Note Key Features:Coupon & Term: 12% fixed annual rate, paid quarterly; principal repaid upon refinance into long-term debt or sale (expected within ~2 years, with flexibility up to 3 years). Note includes 1% origination fee and a 1% exit fee. Invest With Confidence: The Promissory Note is secured by Embassy Apartments, a 247-unit multifamily community in Evansville, IN. Limited Spots Available! |
| Leadership & Vision |
| We are stewards of capital and stewards of your trust. Our long-term orientation isn’t just philosophy — it's behavior. We will not compromise underwriting discipline. We will not force a deal to satisfy a calendar or narrative. We invest when the risk-adjusted reward is clear and compelling — and that moment is drawing closer. When the window opens, we will be ready. |
| Educational Corner: What ‘Disciplined Underwriting’ Means TodayIn this market, investor protection starts with conservative and realistic deal modeling. We continue to hold firm to:Basis below replacement cost — structural downside protectionPositive leverage — deals must cash-flow and accrete value on day oneModerate, data-supported assumptions — no aggressive rent growth stories, no heroic exit cap assumptionsA good deal today must work in today’s environment — not require tomorrow’s optimism. |
| Team News |
| We are thrilled to share two positive updates: 🏢 Acquisitions Team Expansion We are in the final stages of adding a key acquisitions team member — a deeply exciting step as we prepare to lean into market opportunities. Announcement coming soon. 👶 Celebrating Family Congratulations to Angela Blankenbaker, Regional Property Manager, on welcoming twin grandsons this month! Angela’s leadership and dedication continue to elevate our communities and support our residents — please join us in celebrating her growing family. |
| Featured Articles |
| Multifamily investment is rising in 2025 as Nashville and Midwest cities lead with strong fundamentals, affordability, and job growth. Multifamily real estate is regaining strength in 2025. After two years of declining values, prices are trending upward. This shift is driven by rising rents and a more favorable interest rate outlook. As a result, investors are returning to the market — especially in affordable and stable metros.... [Read → HERE] |
| Quote of the Month |
| "Gratitude is not only the greatest of virtues, but the parent of all others." - Cicero |
| The market is evolving, clarity is increasing, and disciplined operators will be rewarded. We’re grateful for your partnership and trust — and we look forward to deploying capital prudently as this next phase unfolds. In Partnership, Tyler & Bryan |
At CF Capital, acquiring and repositioning multifamily assets isn’t where the story ends—it’s where the value-creation journey begins. A successful exit is not simply the sale of an asset, but the culmination of a disciplined process, thoughtful execution, and a clear plan from Day One. Here’s how we approach what we call a high-conviction exit.
1. Setting the Exit Framework Early
Before acquisition, we think several moves ahead. A high-conviction exit begins with an exit framework built directly into underwriting.
We ask:
By defining these parameters upfront, we ensure every investment decision aligns with a clear endgame and measurable investor outcomes.
2. Creating the Value That Fuels the Exit
With the framework in place, execution takes center stage. Whether through unit renovations, amenity upgrades, operational efficiencies, or stronger community engagement, every initiative is designed to enhance net operating income and long-term desirability.
Our team tracks key performance indicators monthly—rent growth, occupancy, expense ratios—to stay nimble and proactive. This data-driven discipline ensures the property performs at its peak as market conditions evolve.
3. Reading the Market and Staying Ready
Timing a sale perfectly is impossible—but being ready isn’t. Because our underwriting includes multiple exit scenarios, we can pivot when opportunity strikes. If the market softens, we extend the hold and harvest cash flow. If conditions strengthen, we act decisively.
Flexibility is core to our value-creation and risk-management approach—allowing us to navigate economic cycles and protect investor returns.
4. Preparing the Asset and Story for Sale
When it’s time to exit, preparation drives performance. A well-positioned property—physically and financially—attracts stronger offers and closes faster.
We focus on:
Equally important is how the story is told. Each CF Capital asset represents not just financial strength, but community revitalization—an alignment that resonates with today’s buyers.
5. Executing with Precision and Transparency
A high-conviction exit demands flawless execution. From due-diligence readiness to investor communication, discipline guides every step.
We select buyers whose strategies align with the asset’s future, creating smoother negotiations and faster closings. At the same time, investors receive timely updates on timing, distribution structure, and outcomes—maintaining trust and alignment from start to finish.
6. Reflecting and Refining
Every exit is a chance to sharpen the process. Post-transaction, we analyze performance against projections, pinpoint what proved conservative or aggressive, and apply those insights to future acquisitions. This feedback loop drives continuous improvement across the portfolio.
Why It Matters
For CF Capital investors, a high-conviction exit means clarity, foresight, and follow-through. It’s not luck—it’s design. From acquisition to disposition, every decision supports one goal: to deliver consistent, risk-adjusted returns while creating lasting value for residents and communities.
Each exit is more than a milestone—it’s proof of process.
If you’d like to learn more about CF Capital’s value-creation and exit strategies, visit cfcapllc.com or reach out to our team. Let’s elevate communities—and returns—together.